My Portfolio

Friday, October 12, 2007

Market thoughts

It's boring and unchallenging at work today where I am tasked to do testing on an application and its so repetitive that I almost dozed off ! In order to get it done fast, I forgoe lunch but well, my efforts are futile as I have yet to complete my work at the end of the day.. So to distract myself from the boring work, I was thinking of ways to optimise my investing strategy and was wondering if it's possible to incoporate methods from 2 lengends, George Soros and Warren Buffett... Theortically speaking, it is not possible as their investing beliefs are poles apart but in today's world of uncertainty, trading on a fundamental approach may be the prefered choice..

They do share some similar beliefs like :
1: Never Overdiversify
2: Taking a contraian approach
3: Risk is just a matter of perception....

George Soros is famously known as the man who broke the bank of england where he earned nearly a billion from that trade.. Even though most forex traders knows the pound currency is depreciating at that time but no one is as confident as Soros to place such an astronomical amount on it. Simiarly, during the great depression, a stock named Wall forgo(Spelling?) worth much less than it's intrinsic value and this is no secret but yet no one is confident to invest in it.. So conclusion, don't let the market affect your judgement and just do whatever you deem correct as long as you are comfortable...

So a question, is trend your friend or foe? Is there any possibility to perceive it differently accordingly to situations? As far as I believe, I still think fundamental analysis is a better way to screen stocks so trend might not be my friend but that is only applicable if a in depth analysis is done on the company. That is because, they are so many ways to beautify their financal statments nowadays and it is relatively easy to conceal the actual numbers and you might be kept in the hide of their actual profitability.

Currently, I have 90% of my funds invested in the stock market and the remaining 10% served as an opportunity fund where they are invested in a money management fund. BasicallyI just want to minimise the 10% from inflation risk (we have been warned that we will be seeing an increasing of inflation in the upcoming years) . I may still lose out from the inflation but I will be compensated from some intangible benefits like the chance of investing in companies when an good opportunity arises.

Well, that's all for today as there are not much time remaining for the night . It's only 2 hours away from my sleep time and there is barely sufficient time for me to revise for my CFA exam...

Melynn

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