My Portfolio

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

2 indicators to measure investor sentiment

There are 2 indicators which are often used to gauge the market sentiment . They are put/call ratios and VIX. Both are calculated based on US equities and Index options.

In most cases these indicators are used as contrarian tools: when market participants are most bullish, the likelihood of a downside reversal is greatest; when investors become overly bearish, a market rally may
be on the horizon.

PCR Ratio
Put/call ratios provide us with an excellent window into what investors are doing. When speculation in calls gets too excessive, the put/call ratio will be low. When investors are bearish and speculation in puts gets excessive, the put/call ratio will be high.

It might be more accurate to use equity-only put/call ratio as professional money mangers might use index options to hedge portfolio of stocks.

VIX
VIX is a measure of the level of implied volatility - not historical or statistical volatility - of a wide range of options based on the S&P 500

When the VIX (which is related to the S&P500) is under 20, there is excessive complacency, and over 30 is excessive fear.  But just as the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P500, the VXN is also more volatile, so anything under 25 is excessive complacency, and over 35 is excessive fear which usually happens when we are close to a bottom.

The importance of these 2 indicators cant be discounted as non economic factors are increasingly becoming important elements and they are best used in conjunction with other indicators. I might consider to use this as one of the factor to determine my entry/exit point (i.e wont buy if its overly bullish) but this might contradict with momentum style so I guess an optimal balance in mixing the strategy can only be achieved through real time experiment.

Free tools to gauge the sentiment can be found at schaeffersresearch.com .

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