My Portfolio

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Investment Diary

From today onwards, I will try to pen down all my trades made to experiment my system. This can help me think through my thoughts more systematically and improve on it.. All the trades made will be used with real money to ensure the accuracy of the system as it takes my own emotions into consideration unlike paper trade whereby I can trade any amount I wish to and not losing anything.. My first trade is made based on purely technical factor..

1. Stock Bought

Keppel Corp (Listed in Singapore market)

2 Reason for buying this 
Strong volume, good intra day trend and high possibility of breaking the resistance. Purely technical..

3. Estimated holding period
1day .. Just trying out my system therefore does not want to risk too much by holding it overnight... 


4. Entry Point
Purely technical again... Bought at point where volume increased and the resistance seems to be breaking..  Experimenting whether entry point is critical...  Price paid : $5.49

5. Selling Point
Set at a tight stop loss at 5% which is $5.2

6. How much was the stock sold

Sold at 5.71 at the end of day.. Deducting commissions(193.26), earned a profit of $906.74

Food for thoughts


1. What if the stock plunge 20% intra day ? Will I hold on to it and wait for it to rebound? Will I have sufficient money to pay the contra sum..
I will definitely sell it even if it plunges 20% as one important factor in determining the success of a system is to adhering to it.


2. Astronomical commission incurred.. 
Is it worth to buy and sell within a day when a commission of nearly $200 is incurred. Its like 20% of the profit. The stock has grown approx 4% from my purchase....


3. How do I determine my position..
Defining the maximum amount I can lose. Probability of the stock going down more than 10% is low for the day in my opinion as the market is very bullish. Hence my purchase has unlimited upside and limited downside. The position is determined using the amount i can lose multiply by 10.

Summary
Although I made a profit from this trade but I'm fully aware that this is due to luck.. All the above aspects need to be improved to have a more defined system to increase my probability of buying a good stock and also overcome possible emotions (i.e greed,fear) ..... 


Following are the immediate tasks which I need to undertake to improve my system

1. Need to come up with a more elaborate method to derive the position size
2. Need to determine the selling point..
3. Defining time horizion.. Intra day is definitely not suitable for me.

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