My Portfolio

Thursday, April 9, 2009

3 factor model (Momentum)

I don't really know much on this area yet so if anyone happened to come across this blog, please feel free to comment on it or contribute.

As of now, following are the indicators which I used to check the stock's momentum .

1. Relative Strength 
Relative strength, or RS, measures how a stock has performed compared to the overall market over a specified time frame. This info is only easily accessible for US markets.

Six-month relative strength >= 75.
Three-month relative strength >= 65.

For example, a 6 -month relative strength of 75 means that a stock has outperformed 75% of all stocks, in terms of price performance, over the past 6 months.

2. On Balance Volume
OBV attempts to detect when a financial instrument (stock, bond, etc.) is being accumulated by a large number of buyers or sold by many sellers. Traders will use an upward sloping OBV to confirm an uptrend, while a downward sloping OBV is used to confirm a downtrend. Finding a downward sloping OBV while the price of an asset is trending upward can be used to suggest that the "smart" traders are starting to exit their positions and that a shift in trend may be coming. (By
investopedia)

If the OBV is moving in the same direction as the existing trend, it is a signal that the strength of the trend remains. When the OBV starts to move against the trend, it is a signal that the existing trend is weakening and may reverse. 

3. ADX
Analysis of 
ADX is a method of evaluating trend and can help traders to choose the strongest trends and also how to let profits run when the trend is strong.  (By investopedia)

 A low ADX value (generally less than 20) can indicate a non-trending market with low volumes; a cross above 20, on the other hand, may indicate the start of a trend (either up or down). If the ADX is over 40 and begins to fall, it can indicate the slowdown of a current trend. This indicator can also be used to identify non-trending markets or a deterioration of an ongoing trend. Although market direction is important in its calculation, the ADX is not a directional indicator.

4. Moving Averages
Occurrences of fast moving averages crossing over the slow moving average is a bullish signal while the vice versa is a bearish.Current moving average I'm using is 14,25 and 200

Pitfalls of Momentum Trading 
Here they are: 
  • Jumping into a position too soon, before a momentum move is confirmed.
  • Closing the position too late, after saturation has been reached.
  • Failing to keep eyes on the screen, missing changing trends, reversals or signs of news that take the market by surprise.
  • Keeping a position open overnight. Stocks are particularly susceptible to external factors occurring after the close of that day's trading - these factors could cause radically different prices and patterns the next day.
  • Failing to act quickly to close a bad position, thereby riding the momentum train the wrong way down the tracks.

Based on the above, i personally think momentum has to be done in moderation cos I never want to be the last one holding on to it therefore for my future trades, I will try not hold on to it based on greed (Not willing to profit early) or fear (Not willing to cut loss).

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